Acoustic Radiation Forced Impulse of the Liver and the Spleen, Combined with Spleen Dimension and Platelet Count in New Ratio Scores, Identifies High-Risk Esophageal Varices in Well-Compensated Cirrhotic Patients.

Acoustic radiation forced impulse (ARFI) is an integrated ultrasound method, measuring stiffness by point shear wave elastography. To evaluate the diagnostic performance of the ARFI of the liver and the spleen, combined with spleen dimension and platelet count, in predicting high-risk esophageal varices (HRVs) in cirrhotic patients, a prospective and cross-sectional study was conducted between February 2017 and February 2021. The following ratio scores were calculated based on ARFI measurements: ALSDP (ARFI Liver-Spleen Diameter-to-Platelet Ratio Score), ASSDP (ARFI Spleen-Spleen Diameter-to-Platelet Ratio Score), ASSAP (ARFI Spleen-Spleen Area-to-Platelet Ratio Score), and ALSAP (ARFI Liver-Spleen Area-to-Platelet Ratio Score). In 100 enrolled subjects, spleen ARFI, ASSDP, and ASSAP were significantly associated with HRVs in the prospective short- and long-term follow-ups and in the cross-sectional study (p < 0.05), while ALSDP and ALSAP were associated with HRVs only in the prospective long-term follow-up and cross-sectional study (p< 0.05). ASSAP was the best ARFI ratio score for HRVs at the long-term follow-up [value of area under curve (AUC) = 0.88], although all the ARFI ratio scores performed better than individual liver and spleen ARFI (AUC > 0.7). In our study, ARFI ratio scores can predict, in well-compensated cirrhotic patients, the risk of developing HVRs in short- and long-term periods.

Non-invasive assessment of hepatic steatosis by ultrasound-derived fat fraction in individuals at high-risk for metabolic dysfunction-associated steatotic liver disease.

AIMS: Given the increasing number of individuals developing metabolic dysfunction-associated steatotic liver disease (MASLD) and the low rate of those with progressive liver disease, there is a pressing need to conceive affordable biomarkers to assess MASLD in general population settings. Herein, we aimed to investigate the performance of the ultrasound-derived fat fraction (UDFF) for hepatic steatosis in high-risk individuals. METHODS: A total of 302 Europeans with obesity, type 2 diabetes, or a clinical history of hepatic steatosis were included in the analyses. Clinical, laboratory, and imaging data were collected using standardized procedures during a single screening visit in Rome, Italy. Hepatic steatosis was defined by controlled attenuation parameter (CAP) or ultrasound-based Hamaguchi's score. UDFF performance for hepatic steatosis was estimated by the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC). RESULTS: Overall, median (IQR) UDFF was 12% (7-20). UDFF was positively correlated with CAP (ρ = 0.73, p < 0.0001) and Hamaguchi's score (ρ = 0.79, p < 0.0001). Independent predictors of UDFF were circulating triglycerides, alanine aminotransferase (ALT), and ultrasound-measured visceral adipose tissue (VAT). UDFF AUC was 0.89 (0.85-0.93) and 0.92 (0.88-0.95) for CAP- and ultrasound-diagnosed hepatic steatosis, respectively. UDFF AUC for hepatic steatosis was higher than those of fatty liver index (FLI), hepatic steatosis index (HSI), CAP-score (CAPS), and ALT (p < 0.0001). Lower age, ALT, and VAT were associated with discordance between UDFF and ultrasound. CONCLUSIONS: UDFF may be a simple and accurate imaging biomarker to assess hepatic steatosis and monitor changes in hepatic fat content over time or in response to therapeutic interventions beyond clinical trials.

Poor accuracy and sustainability of the first-step FIB4 EASL pathway for stratifying steatotic liver disease risk in the general population.

BACKGROUND AND AIMS: The European Association for the Study of the Liver introduced a clinical pathway (EASL CP) for screening significant/advanced fibrosis in people at risk of steatotic liver disease (SLD). We assessed the performance of the first-step FIB4 EASL CP in the general population across different SLD risk groups (MASLD, Met-ALD and ALD) and various age classes. METHODS: We analysed a total of 3372 individuals at risk of SLD from the 2017-2018 National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey (NHANES17-18), projected to 152.3 million U.S. adults, 300,329 from the UK Biobank (UKBB) and 57,644 from the Biobank Japan (BBJ). We assessed liver stiffness measurement (LSM) ≥8 kPa and liver-related events occurring within 3 and 10 years (3/10 year-LREs) as outcomes. We defined MASLD, MetALD, and ALD according to recent international recommendations. RESULTS: FIB4 sensitivity for LSM ≥ 8 kPa was low (27.7%), but it ranged approximately 80%-90% for 3-year LREs. Using FIB4, 22%-57% of subjects across the three cohorts were identified as candidates for vibration-controlled transient elastography (VCTE), which was mostly avoidable (positive predictive value of FIB4 ≥ 1.3 for LSM ≥ 8 kPa ranging 9.5%-13% across different SLD categories). Sensitivity for LSM ≥ 8 kPa and LREs increased with increasing alcohol intake (ALD>MetALD>MASLD) and age classes. For individuals aged ≥65 years, using the recommended age-adjusted FIB4 cut-off (≥2) substantially reduced sensitivity for LSM ≥ 8 kPa and LREs. CONCLUSIONS: The first-step FIB4 EASL CP is poorly accurate and feasible for individuals at risk of SLD in the general population. It is crucial to enhance the screening strategy with a first-step approach able to reduce unnecessary VCTEs and optimise their yield.

Appropriateness of direct oral anticoagulant prescribing in older subjects with atrial fibrillation discharged from acute medical wards.

AIMS: Knowledge on the prescriptive practice of direct oral anticoagulants (DOACs) in older subjects with atrial fibrillation (AF) hospitalized in acute medical wards is limited. This study aimed to evaluate the prevalence and appropriateness of DOAC prescriptions in hospitalized older subjects with AF, discharged from acute medical wards. METHODS: We analysed a cohort of 609 subjects with AF, aged ≥65 years (mean age 85 years) enrolled from 39 geriatric and nephrology wards in Italy. DOAC prescriptive appropriateness was evaluated according to the summary of product characteristics (smPC), 2019 Beers and STOPP criteria, and drug-drug interactions (DDIs). RESULTS: At hospital discharge, 33% of patients with AF were prescribed with DOAC, 26% with vitamin-K antagonist, while 41% did not receive any anticoagulant. Among subjects on DOAC therapy, 31% presented a violation of the smPC criteria (mainly underdosage-17%), while 48% and 18% presented a Beers/STOPP inappropriate prescription, or a DDI, respectively. Older age, lower body mass index (BMI), cancer and higher estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR) were independently associated with DOAC underdosage or missed prescription (age: adjusted odds ratio [aOR] 1.06, 95% confidence interval [95% CI] 1.00-1.12 for underdosage; eGFR: aOR 1.04, 95% CI 1.02-1.07 for underdosage; BMI: aOR 0.95, 95% CI 0.91-0.99 for missed prescription; cancer: aOR 1.93, 95% CI 1.19-3.13 for missed prescription). CONCLUSIONS: This study showed a suboptimal DOAC prescriptive practice in older in-patients, with frequent missed prescription and DOAC underdosage. Contrary to current recommendations, physicians appear overly concerned by bleeding risk in real-life older and frailer subjects. Strategies should be developed to promote appropriate DOAC prescription in the hospital setting.

Partitioned polygenic risk scores identify distinct types of metabolic dysfunction-associated steatotic liver disease.

Metabolic dysfunction-associated steatotic liver disease (MASLD) encompasses an excess of triglycerides in the liver, which can lead to cirrhosis and liver cancer. While there is solid epidemiological evidence of MASLD coexisting with cardiometabolic disease, several leading genetic risk factors for MASLD do not increase the risk of cardiovascular disease, suggesting no causal relationship between MASLD and cardiometabolic derangement. In this work, we leveraged measurements of visceral adiposity and identified 27 novel genetic loci associated with MASLD. Among these loci, we replicated 6 in several independent cohorts. Next, we generated two partitioned polygenic risk scores (PRS) based on the mechanism of genetic association with MASLD encompassing intra-hepatic lipoprotein retention. The two PRS suggest the presence of at least two distinct types of MASLD, one confined to the liver resulting in a more aggressive liver disease and one that is systemic and results in a higher risk of cardiometabolic disease.

Sleep disorders during the COVID-19 pandemic: Results from the second phase of web-based EPICOVID19 study.

The COVID-19 pandemic has induced significant impairments, including sleep disturbances. The present study aimed to explore the impact of fear in relation to stress on sleep disorders among Italian adults and older participants in the second phase of the EPICOVID19 web-based survey (January-February 2021). Sleep disturbances during the pandemic were evaluated using the Jenkins Sleep Scale, perceived stress through the 10-item Perceived Stress Scale and fear of contagion and about economic and job situation with four ad hoc items. The strength of the pathways between stress, sleep disturbances and fear was explored using structural equation modelling, hypothesising that stress was related to sleep disturbances and that fear was associated with both stress and sleep problems. Out of 41,473 participants (74.7% women; mean age 49.7 ± 13.1 years), 8.1% reported sleep disturbances and were more frequently women, employed in a work category at risk of infection or unemployed, and showed higher deprivation scores. Considering an a priori hypotheses model defining sleep and stress scores as endogenous variables and fear as an exogenous variable, we found that fear was associated with sleep problems and stress, and stress was associated with sleep problems; almost half of the total impact of fear on sleep quality was mediated by stress. The impact of stress on sleep quality was more evident in the younger age group, among individuals with a lower socioeconomic status and healthcare workers. Fear related to COVID-19 seem to be associated with sleep disturbances directly and indirectly through stress.

Microarray-Based Detection of Critical Overexpressed Genes in the Progression of Hepatic Fibrosis in Non-Alcoholic Fatty Liver Disease: A Protein-Protein Interaction Network Analysis.

BACKGROUND: Non-alcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD) is a prevalent cause of chronic liver disease and encompasses a broad spectrum of disorders, including simple steatosis, steatohepatitis, fibrosis, cirrhosis, and liver cancer. However, due to the global epidemic of NAFLD, where invasive liver biopsy is the gold standard for diagnosis, it is necessary to identify a more practical method for early NAFLD diagnosis with useful therapeutic targets; as such, molecular biomarkers could most readily serve these aims. To this end, we explored the hub genes and biological pathways in fibrosis progression in NAFLD patients. METHODS: Raw data from microarray chips with GEO accession GSE49541 were downloaded from the Gene Expression Omnibus database, and the R package (Affy and Limma) was applied to investigate differentially expressed genes (DEGs) involved in the progress of low- (mild 0-1 fibrosis score) to high- (severe 3-4 fibrosis score) fibrosis stage NAFLD patients. Subsequently, significant DEGs with pathway enrichment were analyzed, including gene ontology (GO), KEGG and Wikipathway. In order to then explore critical genes, the protein-protein interaction network (PPI) was established and visualized using the STRING database, with further analysis undertaken using Cytoscape and Gephi software. Survival analysis was undertaken to determine the overall survival of the hub genes in the progression of NAFLD to hepatocellular carcinoma. RESULTS: A total of 311 significant genes were identified, with an expression of 278 being upregulated and 33 downregulated in the high vs. low group. Gene functional enrichment analysis of these significant genes demonstrated major involvement in extracellular matrix (ECM)-receptor interaction, protein digestion and absorption, and the AGE-RAGE signaling pathway. The PPI network was constructed with 196 nodes and 572 edges with PPI enrichment using a p-value < 1.0 e-16. Based on this cut-off, we identified 12 genes with the highest score in four centralities: Degree, Betweenness, Closeness, and Eigenvector. Those twelve hub genes were CD34, THY1, CFTR, COL3A1, COL1A1, COL1A2, SPP1, THBS1, THBS2, LUM, VCAN, and VWF. Four of these hub genes, namely CD34, VWF, SPP1, and VCAN, showed significant association with the development of hepatocellular carcinoma. CONCLUSIONS: This PPI network analysis of DEGs identified critical hub genes involved in the progression of fibrosis and the biological pathways through which they exert their effects in NAFLD patients. Those 12 genes offer an excellent opportunity for further focused research to determine potential targets for therapeutic applications.

Predicting risk of declining functional ability in community-dwelling older people.

OBJECTIVE: The frailty phenotype (FP) proposed by Fried and colleagues has been shown to be strongly associated with incident disability, but its discriminative capacities remain suboptimal, with good specificity but a sensitivity of only 10-20%. The objective of the present study was to evaluate whether the addition to the FP of other biological and social variables may improve the prediction of declining functional ability in community-dwelling older people. DESIGN: Prospective observational study. SETTING AND PARTICIPANTS: Community-dwelling older subjects. METHODS: We used data from the InChianti (N 897) and the SHARE (N 444) studies to derive and validate a scoring system consisting of FP components along with age, perceived health status and markers of socio-economic disadvantage. Backward stepwise logistic regressions were used to obtain a parsimonious model, able to predict the loss of ability to perform instrumental or basic activities of daily living over time. RESULTS: A scoring system derived from a model only including age, low physical activity level, exhaustion and perceived health status had an area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUROC) of 0.846 in the training cohort (InChianti), and 0.745 in the testing cohort (SHARE). By applying the cut-off of 33 and 25 in the InChianti and SHARE, respectively, sensitivity raised to 0.70 and 0.62 with specificity of 0.83 and 0.70, respectively. CONCLUSIONS AND IMPLICATIONS: A simple score based on anamnestic variables may be more sensitive than the FP towards worsening functional ability, while retaining good specificity. Further studies are needed to confirm its performance.

Development and Validation of a Score for Fibrotic Nonalcoholic Steatohepatitis.

BACKGROUND & AIMS: Noninvasive assessment of histological features of nonalcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD) has been an intensive research area over the last decade. Herein, we aimed to develop a simple noninvasive score using routine laboratory tests to identify, among individuals at high risk for NAFLD, those with fibrotic nonalcoholic steatohepatitis (NASH) defined as NASH, NAFLD activity score ≥4, and fibrosis stage ≥2. METHODS: The derivation cohort included 264 morbidly obese individuals undergoing intraoperative liver biopsy in Rome, Italy. The best predictive model was developed and internally validated using a bootstrapping stepwise logistic regression analysis (2000 bootstrap samples). Performance was estimated by the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUROC). External validation was assessed in 3 independent European cohorts (Finland, n = 370; Italy, n = 947; England, n = 5368) of individuals at high risk for NAFLD. RESULTS: The final predictive model, designated as Fibrotic NASH Index (FNI), combined aspartate aminotransferase, high-density lipoprotein cholesterol, and hemoglobin A1c. The performance of FNI for fibrotic NASH was satisfactory in both derivation and external validation cohorts (AUROC = 0.78 and AUROC = 0.80-0.95, respectively). In the derivation cohort, rule-out and rule-in cutoffs were 0.10 for sensitivity ≥0.89 (negative predictive value, 0.93) and 0.33 for specificity ≥0.90 (positive predictive value, 0.57), respectively. In the external validation cohorts, sensitivity ranged from 0.87 to 1 (negative predictive value, 0.99-1) and specificity from 0.73 to 0.94 (positive predictive value, 0.12-0.49) for rule-out and rule-in cutoff, respectively. CONCLUSION: FNI is an accurate, simple, and affordable noninvasive score which can be used to screen for fibrotic NASH in individuals with dysmetabolism in primary health care.

Incidence and Outcome of Pneumomediastinum in Non-ICU Hospitalized COVID-19 Patients.

OBJECTIVES: Pneumomediastinum (PNM) is a rare complication of mechanical ventilation, but its reported occurrence in patients with acute respiratory distress syndrome secondary to COVID-19 is significant. The objective is to determine the incidence, risk factors, and outcome of PNM in non-ICU hospitalized patients with severe-to-critical COVID-19 pneumonia. DESIGN: Retrospective observational study. SETTING: Population-based, single-setting, tertiary-care level COVID treatment center. PATIENTS: Individuals hospitalized with a diagnosis of COVID-19 pneumonia and severe to critical illness were included. Those hospitalized without respiratory failure, observed for less than 24 hours, or admitted from an ICU were excluded. INTERVENTIONS: None. MEASUREMENTS AND MAIN RESULTS: All patients underwent a complete clinical assessment and chest CT scan, and were followed up from hospitalization to discharge or death. The outcome was the number of cases of PNM, defined as the presence of free air in the mediastinal tissues diagnosed by chest CT scan, in non-ICU hospitalized patients and the subsequent risk of intubation and mortality. PNM occurred in 48 out of 331 participants. The incidence was 14.5% (95% CI, 10.9-18.8%). A CT-Scan Severity score greater than 15 was positively associated with PNM (odds ratio [OR], 4.09; p = 0.002) and was observed in 35.2% of the participants (95% CI, 26.2-44.9%). Noninvasive ventilation was also positively associated with PNM (OR, 4.46; p = 0.005), but there was no positive association with airway pressures. Fifty patients (15%) were intubated, and 88 (27%) died. Both the risk for intubation and mortality were higher in patients with PNM, with a hazard ratio of 3.72 ( p < 0.001) and 3.27 ( p < 0.001), respectively. CONCLUSIONS: Non-ICU hospitalized patients with COVID-19 have a high incidence of PNM, increasing the risk for intubation and mortality three- to four-fold, particularly in those with extensive lung damage. These findings help define the risk and outcome of PNM in severe-to-critical COVID-19 pneumonia in a non-ICU setting.

Predictors of serious adverse events and non-response in cirrhotic patients with primary biliary cholangitis treated with obeticholic acid.

BACKGROUND & AIMS: Obeticholic acid (OCA) has recently been restricted in patients with primary biliary cholangitis (PBC) with "advanced cirrhosis" because of its narrow therapeutic index. We aimed to better define the predicting factors of hepatic serious adverse events (SAEs) and non-response in cirrhotic patients undergoing OCA therapy. METHODS: Safety and efficacy of treatment were evaluated in a cohort of consecutive PBC cirrhotic patients started with OCA. OCA response was evaluated according to the Poise criteria. Risk factors for hepatic SAEs and non-response were reported as risk ratios (RR) with 95% confidence intervals (CIs). RESULTS: One hundred PBC cirrhotics were included, 97 Child-Pugh class A and 3 class B. Thirty-one had oesophageal varices and 5 had a history of ascites. Thirty-three per cent and 32% of patients achieved a biochemical response at 6 and 12 months respectively. Male sex (adjusted-RR 1.75, 95%CI 1.42-2.12), INR (1.37, 1.00-1.87), Child-Pugh score (1.79, 1.28-2.50), MELD (1.17, 1.04-1.30) and bilirubin (1.83, 1.11-3.01) were independently associated with non-response to OCA. Twenty-two patients discontinued OCA within 12 months: 10 for pruritus, 9 for hepatic SAEs (5 for jaundice and/or ascitic decompensation; 4 for upper digestive bleeding). INR (adjusted-RR 1.91, 95%CI 1.10-3.36), lower albumin levels (0.18, 0.06-0.51), Child-Pugh score (2.43, 1.50-4.04), history of ascites (3.5, 1.85-6.5) and bilirubin (1.30, 1.05-1.56), were associated with hepatic SAEs. A total bilirubin≥1.4 mg/dl at baseline was the most accurate biochemical predictor of hepatic SAEs under OCA. CONCLUSIONS: An accurate baseline assessment is crucial to select cirrhotic patients who can benefit from OCA. Although OCA is effective in one third of cirrhotics, bilirubin level ≥1.4 mg/dl should discourage from its use.

Chronic cough in adults: recommendations from an Italian intersociety consensus.

BACKGROUND: Chronic cough (CC) is a burdensome health problem in adult and older people, with a major impact on quality of life. Its management is often troublesome, and many guidelines have been released. Notwithstanding, a proportion of cases still do not reach a definite diagnosis and resolutive treatment. A coordinated approach between different specialists would be highly recommended, but its implementation in clinical practice suffers from the lack of shared protocols and poor awareness of the problem. The present consensus document has been implemented to address these issues. AIMS: To develop evidence-based recommendations for the management of adults with CC. METHODS: A 12-member expert task force of general practitioners, geriatricians, pneumologists, allergologists, otorhynolaringologists and gastroenterologists was established to develop evidence-based recommendations for the diagnostic and therapeutic approach to subjects with CC. A modified Delphi approach was used to achieve consensus, and the US Preventive Services Task Force system was used to rate the strength of recommendations and the quality of evidence. RESULTS: A total of 56 recommendations were proposed, covering 28 topics and concerning definitions and epidemiology, pathogenesis and etiology, diagnostic and therapeutic approach along with the consideration of specific care settings. CONCLUSION: These recommendations should ease the management of subjects with CC by coordinating the expertise of different specialists. By providing a convenient list of topics of interest, they might assist in identifying unmet needs and research priorities.

Length of Hospital Stay after Total Knee Arthroplasty: A Correlation Study on 1200 Patients.

In countries with a high average population age, total knee arthroplasty is still carried out in an inpatient setting. The roadmap to performing major surgery on an outpatient basis passes through the understanding of those perioperative features that correlate with higher lengths of hospital stay (LOS). A retrospective database of 1200 patients was reviewed for retrieving preoperative and perioperative factors including anthropometric and demographic data, comorbidities, preoperative laboratory assessment, and surgical time. Considering the LOS as a discrete series, data were analyzed by means of logistic regression with multiple univariate and multivariate models. The results showed a median length of hospital stay of 3 (IQR 3, 4) days. According to multiple univariate analysis, arterial hypertension (p = 0.008), diabetes mellitus (p = 0.028), CCI score (p < 0.001), ASA score (p = 0.006), surgical time (p < 0.001) and intraoperative blood loss (p < 0.001) were significantly associated with the duration of hospital stay in days. Moreover, preoperative hemoglobin value was inversely correlated to the LOS (p = 0.008). Multivariate analysis showed a significant correlation between LOS and surgical time and intraoperative blood loss. Many factors influence the permanence of the inpatient and acting on those variables, by stabilizing comorbidities and optimizing laboratory values, may reduce the overall healthcare burden.

A Genetic and Metabolic Staging System for Predicting the Outcome of Nonalcoholic Fatty Liver Disease.

Nonalcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD) is an emerging cause of liver-related events (LREs). Here, we have assessed the ability of a composite score based on clinical features, metabolic comorbidities, and genetic variants to predict LREs. A total of 546 consecutive patients with NAFLD were recruited and stratified according to the fibrosis-4 (FIB-4) index. LREs were defined as occurrence of hepatocellular carcinoma or hepatic decompensation. Cox regression multivariate analysis was used to identify baseline variables associated with LREs. The UK Biobank was used as the validation cohort, and severe liver disease (incidence of cirrhosis, decompensated liver disease, hepatocellular carcinoma, and/or liver transplantation) was used as the outcome. LREs were experienced by 58 patients, only one of whom was in the cohort of patients with a FIB-4 score < 1.3. Multivariate Cox regression analysis of 229 patients with a FIB-4 score ≥ 1.3 highlighted clinical variables independently associated with the development of LREs, including older age, low platelet count, low albumin, low high-density lipoprotein cholesterol, certain genetic factors, and interactions between genetic factors and sex or diabetes. The area under the curve (AUC) for the model was 0.87 at 1, 3, and 5 years. Our novel Genetic and Metabolic Staging (GEMS) scoring system was derived from the Cox model linear predictor, ranked from 0 to 10, and categorized into five classes (0-5, 5-6, 6-7, 7-8, and 8-10). The risk of LREs increased from 4% in patients in the best class (GEMS score 0-5) to 91% in the worst (GEMS score 8-10). GEMS score was associated with incident severe liver disease in the study population (hazard ratio, 1.56; 95% confidence interval, 1.48-1.65; P < 0.001) as well as in the UK Biobank cohort where AUCs for prediction of severe liver disease at 1, 3, and 5 years were 0.70, 0.69, and 0.67, respectively. Conclusion: The novel GEMS scoring system has an adequate ability to predict the outcome of patients with NAFLD.

Sarcopenia in Hepatocellular Carcinoma: Pathogenesis and Management.

BACKGROUND: Sarcopenia is almost constantly observed in patients with cirrhosis and hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC). SUMMARY: Chronic liver disease represents a unique pathophysiological scenario in which sarcopenia develops and all factors involved in the pathogenesis should be taken into account for an appropriate management of the disease. No properly designed intervention studies on this topic are available and, thus, no effective strategies have been developed for clinical practice. Apart from any targeted intervention, treatment, and optimization of liver disease is crucial. KEY MESSAGES: In patients with cirrhosis and HCC, nutritional support to maintain and restore nutrition status, a targeted use of branched-chain amino acids and a guided physical exercise, should all be an integral part of the multidimensional assessment and tailored interventions.

A Polygenic Risk Score to Refine Risk Stratification and Prediction for Severe Liver Disease by Clinical Fibrosis Scores.

BACKGROUND & AIMS: A polygenic risk score based on well-known genetic variants in PNPLA3, TM6SF2, MBOAT7, and GCKR predicts hepatic fat content (polygenic risk score-hepatic fat content [PRS-HFC]). Here, we hypothesized that the addition of PRS-HFC to clinical fibrosis scores may improve risk stratification and prediction of severe liver disease (SLD). METHODS: We used data from 266,687 individuals in the UK Biobank, evaluating the incidence of cirrhosis, decompensated liver disease, hepatocellular carcinoma, and/or liver transplantation during a median follow-up period of 9 years. Nonalcoholic fatty liver disease fibrosis score, Fibrosis-4, aspartate aminotransferase-to-platelet ratio, BARD, and Forns scores, and PRS-HFC, were computed. All analyses were stratified according to the presence of diabetes, obesity, and a positive fatty liver index (≥60). RESULTS: Unfavorable genetics (PRS-HFC, ≥0.396) further stratified the risk of SLD in subjects in intermediate-/high-risk classes of fibrosis scores, with a higher effect in those with metabolic risk factors, and the prediction was improved by integrating PRS-HFC (areas under the receiver operating characteristic increased for all scores with a P value of approximately 10-2 to 10-4, except for the aspartate aminotransferase-to-platelet ratio in the overall population and in subjects with obesity). PRS-HFC improved diagnostic accuracies and positive predictive values for SLD in intermediate-high clinical score risk classes. Risk stratification and prediction were not affected or were poorly affected by unfavorable genetics in subjects without metabolic risk factors. CONCLUSIONS: Integration of genetics with clinical fibrosis scores refines individual risk and prediction for SLD, mainly in individuals at risk for nonalcoholic fatty liver disease. These data provide evidence from a prospective cohort that common genetic variants capture additional prognostic insights not conveyed by validated clinical/biochemical parameters.